Understanding the health system utilisation and reasons for avoidable mortality after fatal injury within a Three-Delays framework in Karonga, Northern Malawi: a retrospective analysis of verbal autopsy data.

OBJECTIVES: To use verbal autopsy (VA) data to understand health system utilisation and the potential avoidability associated with fatal injury. Then to categorise any evident barriers driving avoidable delays to care within a Three-Delays framework that considers delays to seeking (Delay 1), reaching (Delay 2) or receiving (Delay 3) quality injury care. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of existing VA data routinely collected by a demographic surveillance site. SETTING: Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) population, Northern Malawi. PARTICIPANTS: Fatally injured members of the HDSS. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the proportion of fatal injury deaths that were potentially avoidable. Secondary outcomes were the delay stage and corresponding barriers associated with avoidable deaths and the health system utilisation for fatal injuries within the health system. RESULTS: Of the 252 deaths due to external causes, 185 injury-related deaths were analysed. Deaths were predominantly among young males (median age 30, IQR 11-48), 71.9% (133/185). 35.1% (65/185) were assessed as potentially avoidable. Delay 1 was implicated in 30.8% (20/65) of potentially avoidable deaths, Delay 2 in 61.5% (40/65) and Delay 3 in 75.4% (49/65). Within Delay 1, 'healthcare literacy' was most commonly implicated barrier in 75% (15/20). Within Delay 2, 'communication' and 'prehospital care' were the most commonly implicated in 92.5% (37/40). Within Delay 3, 'physical resources' were most commonly implicated, 85.7% (42/49). CONCLUSIONS: VA is feasible for studying pathways to care and health system responsiveness in avoidable deaths following injury and ascertaining the delays that contribute to deaths. A large proportion of injury deaths were avoidable, and we have identified several barriers as potential targets for intervention. Refining and integrating VA with other health system assessment methods is likely necessary to holistically understand an injury care health system.

Association between physical multimorbidity and common mental health disorders in rural and urban Malawian settings: Preliminary findings from Healthy Lives Malawi long-term conditions survey.

In low-income Africa, the epidemiology of physical multimorbidity and associated mental health conditions is not well described. We investigated the multimorbidity burden, disease combinations, and relationship between physical multimorbidity and common mental health disorders in rural and urban Malawi using early data from 9,849 adults recruited to an on-going large cross-sectional study on long-term conditions, initiated in 2021. Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more measured (diabetes, hypertension) or self-reported (diabetes, hypertension, disability, chronic pain, HIV, asthma, stroke, heart disease, and epilepsy) conditions. Depression and anxiety symptoms were measured using the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the 7-item General Anxiety Disorder scale (GAD-7) and defined by the total score (range 0-27 and 0-21, respectively). We determined age-standardized multimorbidity prevalence and condition combinations. Additionally, we used multiple linear regression models to examine the association between physical multimorbidity and depression and anxiety symptom scores. Of participants, 81% were rural dwelling, 56% were female, and the median age was 30 years (Inter Quartile Range 21-43). The age-standardized urban and rural prevalence of multimorbidity was 14.1% (95% CI, 12.5-15.8%) and 12.2% (95% CI, 11.6-12.9%), respectively. In adults with two conditions, hypertension, and disability co-occurred most frequently (18%), and in those with three conditions, hypertension, disability, and chronic pain were the most common combination (23%). Compared to adults without physical conditions, having one (B-Coefficient (B) 0.79; 95% C1 0.63-0.94%), two- (B 1.36; 95% CI 1.14-1.58%), and three- or more- physical conditions (B 2.23; 95% CI 1.86-2.59%) were associated with increasing depression score, p-trend <0.001. A comparable 'dose-response' relationship was observed between physical multimorbidity and anxiety symptom scores. While the direction of observed associations cannot be determined with these cross-sectional data, our findings highlight the burden of multimorbidity and the need to integrate mental and physical health service delivery in Malawi.

A practical guide to cross-cultural and multi-sited data collection in the biological and behavioural sciences.

Researchers in the biological and behavioural sciences are increasingly conducting collaborative, multi-sited projects to address how phenomena vary across ecologies. These types of projects, however, pose additional workflow challenges beyond those typically encountered in single-sited projects. Through specific attention to cross-cultural research projects, we highlight four key aspects of multi-sited projects that must be considered during the design phase to ensure success: (1) project and team management; (2) protocol and instrument development; (3) data management and documentation; and (4) equitable and collaborative practices. Our recommendations are supported by examples from our experiences collaborating on the Evolutionary Demography of Religion project, a mixed-methods project collecting data across five countries in collaboration with research partners in each host country. To existing discourse, we contribute new recommendations around team and project management, introduce practical recommendations for exploring the validity of instruments through qualitative techniques during piloting, highlight the importance of good documentation at all steps of the project, and demonstrate how data management workflows can be strengthened through open science practices. While this project was rooted in cross-cultural human behavioural ecology and evolutionary anthropology, lessons learned from this project are applicable to multi-sited research across the biological and behavioural sciences.

Access to quality care after injury in Northern Malawi: results of a household survey.

BACKGROUND: Most injury care research in low-income contexts such as Malawi is facility centric. Community-derived data is needed to better understand actual injury incidence, health system utilisation and barriers to seeking care following injury. METHODS: We administered a household survey to 2200 households in Karonga, Malawi. The primary outcome was injury incidence, with non-fatal injuries classified as major or minor (> 30 or 1-29 disability days respectively). Those seeking medical treatment were asked about time delays to seeking, reaching and receiving care at a facility, where they sought care, and whether they attended a second facility. We performed analysis for associations between injury severity and whether the patient sought care, stayed overnight in a facility, attended a second facility, or received care within 1 or 2 h. The reason for those not seeking care was asked. RESULTS: Most households (82.7%) completed the survey, with 29.2% reporting an injury. Overall, 611 non-fatal and four fatal injuries were reported from 531 households: an incidence of 6900 per 100,000. Major injuries accounted for 26.6%. Three quarters, 76.1% (465/611), sought medical attention. Almost all, 96.3% (448/465), seeking care attended a primary facility first. Only 29.7% (138/465), attended a second place of care. Only 32.0% (142/444), received care within one hour. A further 19.1% (85/444) received care within 2 h. Major injury was associated with being more likely to have; sought care (94.4% vs 69.8% p < 0.001), stayed overnight at a facility (22.9% vs 15.4% P = 0.047), attended a second place of care (50.3% vs 19.9%, P < 0.001). For those not seeking care the most important reason was the injury not being serious enough for 52.1% (74/142), followed by transport difficulties 13.4% (19/142) and financial costs 5.6% (8/142). CONCLUSION: Injuries in Northern Malawi are substantial. Community-derived details are necessary to fully understand injury burden and barriers to seeking and reaching care.

Health system assessment for access to care after injury in low- or middle-income countries: A mixed methods study from Northern Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Injuries represent a vast and relatively neglected burden of disease affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While many health systems underperform in treating injured patients, most assessments have not considered the whole system. We integrated findings from 9 methods using a 3 delays approach (delays in seeking, reaching, or receiving care) to prioritise important trauma care health system barriers in Karonga, Northern Malawi, and exemplify a holistic health system assessment approach applicable in comparable settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To provide multiple perspectives on each conceptual delay and include data from community-based and facility-based sources, we used 9 methods to examine the injury care health system. The methods were (1) household survey; (2) verbal autopsy analysis; (3) community focus group discussions (FGDs); (4) community photovoice; (5) facility care-pathway process mapping and elucidation of barriers following injury; (6) facility healthcare worker survey; (7) facility assessment survey; (8) clinical vignettes for care process quality assessment of facility-based healthcare workers; and (9) geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Empirical data collection took place in Karonga, Northern Malawi, between July 2019 and February 2020. We used a convergent parallel study design concurrently conducting all data collection before subsequently integrating results for interpretation. For each delay, a matrix was created to juxtapose method-specific data relevant to each barrier identified as driving delays to injury care. Using a consensus approach, we graded the evidence from each method as to whether an identified barrier was important within the health system. We identified 26 barriers to access timely quality injury care evidenced by at least 3 of the 9 study methods. There were 10 barriers at delay 1, 6 at delay 2, and 10 at delay 3. We found that the barriers "cost," "transport," and "physical resources" had the most methods providing strong evidence they were important health system barriers within delays 1 (seeking care), 2 (reaching care), and 3 (receiving care), respectively. Facility process mapping provided evidence for the greatest number of barriers-25 of 26 within the integrated analysis. There were some barriers with notable divergent findings between the community- and facility-based methods, as well as among different community- and facility-based methods, which are discussed. The main limitation of our study is that the framework for grading evidence strength for important health system barriers across the 9 studies was done by author-derived consensus; other researchers might have created a different framework. CONCLUSIONS: By integrating 9 different methods, including qualitative, quantitative, community-, patient-, and healthcare worker-derived data sources, we gained a rich insight into the functioning of this health system's ability to provide injury care. This approach allowed more holistic appraisal of this health system's issues by establishing convergence of evidence across the diverse methods used that the barriers of cost, transport, and physical resources were the most important health system barriers driving delays to seeking, reaching, and receiving injury care, respectively. This offers direction and confidence, over and above that derived from single methodology studies, for prioritising barriers to address through health service development and policy.

Pregnancy-related mortality up to 1 year postpartum in sub-Saharan Africa: an analysis of verbal autopsy data from six countries.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the causes of death for women who died during pregnancy and within the first 42 days postpartum with those of women who died between >42 days and within 1 year postpartum. DESIGN: Open population cohort (Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems). SETTING: Ten Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) in The Gambia, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Ethiopia and South Africa. POPULATION: 2114 deaths which occurred within 1 year of the end of pregnancy where a verbal autopsy interview was conducted from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: InterVA5 and InSilicoVA verbal autopsy algorithms were used to attribute the most likely underlying cause of death, which were grouped according to adapted International Classification of Diseases-Maternal Mortality categories. Multinomial regression was used to compare differences in causes of deaths within 42 days versus 43-365 days postpartum adjusting for HDSS and time period (2000-2009 and 2010-2019). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cause of death and the verbal autopsy Circumstances of Mortality Categories (COMCATs). RESULTS: Of 2114 deaths, 1212 deaths occurred within 42 days postpartum and 902 between 43 and 365 days postpartum. Compared with deaths within 42 days, deaths from HIV and TB, other infectious diseases, and non-communicable diseases constituted a significantly larger proportion of late pregnancy-related deaths beyond 42 days postpartum, and health system failures were important in the circumstances of those deaths. The contribution of HIV and TB to deaths beyond 42 days postpartum was greatest in Southern Africa. The causes of pregnancy-related mortality within and beyond 42 days postpartum did not change significantly between 2000-2009 and 2010-2019. CONCLUSIONS: Cause of death data from the extended postpartum period are critical to inform prevention. The dominance of HIV and TB, other infectious and non-communicable diseases to (late) pregnancy-related mortality highlights the need for better integration of non-obstetric care with ante-, intra- and postpartum care in high-burden settings.

Rates of sexual partner acquisition from nationally representative surveys: variation between countries and by age, sex, wealth, partner and HIV status.

BACKGROUND: Knowing levels and determinants of partnership acquisition will help inform interventions that try to reduce transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) including HIV. METHODS: We used population-based, cross-sectional data from 47 Demographic and Health Surveys to calculate rates of partner acquisition among men and women (15-49years), and identified socio-demographic correlates for partner acquisition. Partner acquisition rates were estimated as the total number of acquisitions divided by the person-time in the period covered by the survey. For each survey and by sex, we estimated age-specific partner acquisition rates and used age-adjusted piecewise exponential survival models to explore whether there was any association between wealth, HIV status and partner status with partner acquisition rates. RESULTS: Across countries, the median partner acquisition rates were 30/100 person-years for men (interquartile range 21-45) and 13/100 person-years for women (interquartile range 6-18). There were substantial variations in partner acquisition rates by age. Associations between wealth and partner acquisition rates varied across countries. People with a cohabiting partner were less likely to acquire a new one, and this effect was stronger for women than men and varied substantially between countries. Women living with HIV had higher partner acquisition rates than HIV-negative women but this association was less apparent for men. At a population level, partner acquisition rates were correlated with HIV incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Partner acquisition rates are variable and are associated with important correlates of STIs and thus could be used to identify groups at high risk of STIs.

Epidemiology of multimorbidity in low-income countries of sub-Saharan Africa: Findings from four population cohorts.

We investigated prevalence and demographic characteristics of adults living with multimorbidity (≥2 long-term conditions) in three low-income countries of sub-Saharan Africa, using secondary population-level data from four cohorts; Malawi (urban & rural), The Gambia (rural) and Uganda (rural). Information on; measured hypertension, diabetes and obesity was available in all cohorts; measured hypercholesterolaemia and HIV and self-reported asthma was available in two cohorts and clinically diagnosed epilepsy in one cohort. Analyses included calculation of age standardised multimorbidity prevalence and the cross-sectional associations of multimorbidity and demographic/lifestyle factors using regression modelling. Median participant age was 29 (Inter quartile range-IQR 22-38), 34 (IQR25-48), 32 (IQR 22-53) and 37 (IQR 26-51) in urban Malawi, rural Malawi, The Gambia, and Uganda, respectively. Age standardised multimorbidity prevalence was higher in urban and rural Malawi (22.5%;95% Confidence intervals-CI 21.6-23.4%) and 11.7%; 95%CI 11.1-12.3, respectively) than in The Gambia (2.9%; 95%CI 2.5-3.4%) and Uganda (8.2%; 95%CI 7.5-9%) cohorts. In multivariate models, females were at greater risk of multimorbidity than males in Malawi (Incidence rate ratio-IRR 1.97, 95% CI 1.79-2.16 urban and IRR 2.10; 95%CI 1.86-2.37 rural) and Uganda (IRR- 1.60, 95% CI 1.32-1.95), with no evidence of difference between the sexes in The Gambia (IRR 1.16, 95% CI 0.86-1.55). There was strong evidence of greater multimorbidity risk with increasing age in all populations (p-value <0.001). Higher educational attainment was associated with increased multimorbidity risk in Malawi (IRR 1.78; 95% CI 1.60-1.98 urban and IRR 2.37; 95% CI 1.74-3.23 rural) and Uganda (IRR 2.40, 95% CI 1.76-3.26), but not in The Gambia (IRR 1.48; 95% CI 0.56-3.87). Further research is needed to study multimorbidity epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa with an emphasis on robust population-level data collection for a wide variety of long-term conditions and ensuring proportionate representation from men and women, and urban and rural areas.

Influences on policy-formulation, decision-making, organisation and management for maternal, newborn and child health in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi and Uganda: The roles and legitimacy of a multi-country network.

The Network for Improving Quality of Care for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health (QCN) is intended to facilitate learning, action, leadership and accountability for improving quality of care in member countries. This requires legitimacy-a network's right to exert power within national contexts. This is reflected, for example, in a government's buy-in and perceived ownership of the work of the network. During 2019-2022 we conducted iterative rounds of stakeholder interviews, observations of meetings, document review, and hospital observations in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, Uganda and at the global level. We developed a framework drawing on three models: Tallberg and Zurn which conceptualizes legitimacy of international organisations dependent on their features, the legitimation process and beliefs of audiences; Nasiritousi and Faber, which looks at legitimacy in terms of problem, purpose, procedure, and performance of institutions; Sanderink and Nasiritousi, to characterize networks in terms of political, normative and cognitive interactions. We used thematic analysis to characterize, compare and contrast institutional interactions in a cross-case synthesis to determine salient features. Political and normative interactions were favourable within and between countries and at global level since collective decisions, collaborative efforts, and commitment to QCN goals were observed at all levels. Sharing resources and common principles were not common between network countries, indicating limits of the network. Cognitive interactions-those related to information sharing and transfer of ideas-were more challenging, with the bi-directional transfer, synthesis and harmonization of concepts and methods, being largely absent among and within countries. These may be required for increasing government ownership of QCN work, the embeddedness of the network, and its legitimacy. While we find evidence supporting the legitimacy of QCN from the perspective of country governments, further work and time are required for governments to own and embed the work of QCN in routine care.

Opportunities to sustain a multi-country quality of care network: Lessons on the actions of four countries Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, and Uganda.

The Quality of Care Network (QCN) is a global initiative that was established in 2017 under the leadership of WHO in 11 low-and- middle income countries to improve maternal, newborn, and child health. The vision was that the Quality of Care Network would be embedded within member countries and continued beyond the initial implementation period: that the Network would be sustained. This paper investigated the experience of actions taken to sustain QCN in four Network countries (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, and Uganda) and reports on lessons learned. Multiple iterative rounds of data collection were conducted through qualitative interviews with global and national stakeholders, and non-participatory observation of health facilities and meetings. A total of 241 interviews, 42 facility and four meeting observations were carried out. We conducted a thematic analysis of all data using a framework approach that defined six critical actions that can be taken to promote sustainability. The analysis revealed that these critical actions were present with varying degrees in each of the four countries. Although vulnerabilities were observed, there was good evidence to support that actions were taken to institutionalize the innovation within the health system, to motivate micro-level actors, plan opportunities for reflection and adaptation from the outset, and to support strong government ownership. Two actions were largely absent and weakened confidence in future sustainability: managing financial uncertainties and fostering community ownership. Evidence from four countries suggested that the QCN model would not be sustained in its original format, largely because of financial vulnerability and insufficient time to embed the innovation at the sub-national level. But especially the efforts made to institutionalize the innovation in existing systems meant that some characteristics of QCN may be carried forward within broader government quality improvement initiatives.

Effects of exclusive breastfeeding on educational attainment and longitudinal trajectories of grade progression among children in a 13-year follow-up study in Malawi.

The benefits of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for infant health and survival are well documented. However, its impact on educational outcomes has been contested and poorly researched in Africa. It has been hypothesised that positive associations reported in high-income countries can be attributed to residual confounding by socioeconomic status (SES). Our study investigated whether EBF duration in infancy is associated with educational attainment and age-for-grade attainment trajectories at school-age in rural Malawi. Longitudinal data on 1021 children at the Karonga demographic surveillance site in Malawi were analysed. Breastfeeding data were collected 3 months after birth and again at age one. The school grade of each child was recorded each year from age 6 until age 13. We calculated age-for-grade based on whether a child was at, over, or under the official expected age for a grade. Generalised estimating equations estimated the average effect of breastfeeding on age-for-grade. Latent class growth analysis identified age-for-grade trajectories, and multinomial logistic regression examined their associations with EBF. Maternal-child characteristics, SES, and HIV status were controlled. Overall, 35.9% of the children were exclusively breastfed for 6 months. Over-age for grade steadily increased from 9.6% at age 8 to 41.9% at age 13. There was some evidence that EBF for 6 months was associated with lower odds of being over-age for grade than EBF for less than 3 months (aOR = 0.82, 95%CI = 0.64-1.06). In subgroup analyses, children exclusively breastfed for 6 months in infancy were less likely to be over-age for grades between ages 6-9 (aOR = 0.64, 95%CI = 0.43-0.94). Latent class growth analysis also provided some evidence that EBF reduced the odds of falling behind in the early school grades (aOR = 0.66, 95%CI = 0.41-1.08) but not later. Our study adds to the growing evidence that EBF for 6 months has benefits beyond infant health and survival, supporting the WHO's recommendation on EBF.

Novel application of multi-facility process map analysis for rapid injury care health system assessment in Northern Malawi.

OBJECTIVES: We used the process mapping method and Three Delays framework, to identify and visually represent the relationship between critical actions, decisions and barriers to access to care following injury in the Karonga health system, Northern Malawi. DESIGN: Facilitated group process mapping workshops with summary process mapping synthesis. SETTING: Process mapping workshops took place in 11 identified health system facilities (one per facility) providing injury care for a population in Karonga, Northern Malawi. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty-four healthcare workers from various cadres took part. RESULTS: An overall injury health system summary map was created using those categories of action, decision and barrier that were sometimes or frequently reported. This provided a visual summary of the process following injury within the health system. For Delay 1 (seeking care) four barriers were most commonly described (by 8 of 11 facilities) these were 'cultural norms', 'healthcare literacy', 'traditional healers' and 'police processes'. For Delay 2 (reaching care) the barrier most frequently described was 'transport'-a lack of timely affordable emergency transport (formal or informal) described by all 11 facilities. For Delay 3 (receiving quality care) the most commonly reported barrier was that of 'physical resources' (9 of 11 facilities). CONCLUSIONS: We found our novel approach combining several process mapping exercises to produce a summary map to be highly suited to rapid health system assessment identifying barriers to injury care, within a Three Delays framework. We commend the approach to others wishing to conduct rapid health system assessments in similar contexts.

Characterizing the evolving SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in urban and rural Malawi between February 2021 and April 2022: A population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the changing SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and associated health and sociodemographic factors in Malawi between February 2021 and April 2022. METHODS: In total, four 3-monthly serosurveys were conducted within a longitudinal population-based cohort in rural Karonga District and urban Lilongwe, testing for SARS-CoV-2 S1 immunoglobulin (Ig)G antibodies using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Population seroprevalence was estimated in all and unvaccinated participants. Bayesian mixed-effects logistic models estimated the odds of seropositivity in the first survey, and of seroconversion between surveys, adjusting for age, sex, occupation, location, and assay sensitivity/specificity. RESULTS: Of the 2005 participants (Karonga, n = 1005; Lilongwe, n = 1000), 55.8% were female and median age was 22.7 years. Between Surveys (SVY) 1 and 4, population-weighted SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased from 26.3% to 89.2% and 46.4% to 93.9% in Karonga and Lilongwe, respectively. At SVY4, seroprevalence did not differ by COVID-19 vaccination status in adults, except for those aged 30+ years in Karonga (unvaccinated: 87.4%, 95% credible interval 79.3-93.0%; two doses: 98.1%, 94.8-99.5%). Location and age were associated with seroconversion risk. Individuals with hybrid immunity had higher SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and antibody titers, than those infected. CONCLUSION: High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence combined with low morbidity and mortality indicate that universal vaccination is unnecessary at this stage of the pandemic, supporting change in national policy to target at-risk groups.

A secondary data analysis of a cluster randomized controlled trial: improved cookstoves associated with reduction in incidence of low birthweight in rural Malawi.

BACKGROUND: In northern rural Malawi, the majority of households cook using open fires and there is also a high burden of adverse birth outcomes. The use of open fires or highly polluting cookstoves is associated with low birthweight in babies. There is mixed evidence on whether implementation of cleaner burning cookstoves reduces the number of babies born with low birthweight. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a cluster randomized control trial in Malawi, conducted over 2014-17. Households were randomized to receive improved cookstoves or to continue current practices. For this analysis, the primary outcome was low birthweight in households under routine demographic surveillance, among births occurring within the trial time frame (N = 4010). A subset of data with stricter exposure definitions respecting the original randomized allocation was also analysed (N = 1050). A causal, forwards modelling approach was used. RESULTS: The main dataset showed evidence of effect of the intervention on low birthweight [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.69; 95% CI 0.48-0.99, n = 2788). The subset analysis lacked power to provide evidence of association between improved cookstoves and low birthweight in the stricter exposure definition (aOR 0.62; 95% CI 0.35-1.09, n = 932). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides some evidence that an improved cookstove intervention in rural Malawi reduced the number of babies born with low birthweight by 30%. This direction of the effect was also seen in the subset analysis. The analysis suggests that the intervention reduced the number of infants born prematurely or with intra-uterine growth restriction, indicating that improved cookstoves could be a useful maternal health intervention.

Access to care following injury in Northern Malawi, a comparison of travel time estimates between Geographic Information System and community household reports.

INTRODUCTION: Injuries disproportionately impact low- and middle-income countries like Malawi. The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery's indicators include the population proportion accessing laparotomy and open fracture care, key trauma interventions, within two hours. The "Golden Hour" for receiving facility-based resuscitation also guides injury care system strengthening. Firstly, we estimated the proportion of the local population able to reach primary, secondary and tertiary facility care within two and one hours using Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis. Secondly, we compared community household-reported with GIS-estimated travel time. METHODS: Using information from a Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (Karonga, Malawi) on road network, facility location, and local staff-estimated travel speeds, we used a GIS-generated friction surface to calculate the shortest travel time from all households to each facility serving the population. We surveyed community households who reported travel time to their preferred, closest, government secondary and tertiary facilities. For recently injured community members, time to reach facility care was recorded. To assess the relationship between community household-reported travel time and GIS-estimated travel time, we used linear regression to generate a proportionality constant. To assess associations and agreement between injured patient-reported and GIS-estimated travel time, we used Kendall rank and Cohen's kappa tests. RESULTS: Using GIS, we estimated 79.1% of households could reach any secondary facility, 20.5% the government secondary facility, and 0% the government tertiary facility, within two hours. Only 28.2% could reach any secondary facility within one hour, 0% for the government secondary facility. Community household-reported travel time exceeded GIS-estimated travel time. The proportionality constant was 1.25 (95%CI 1.21-1.30) for the closest facility, 1.28 (95%CI 1.23-1.34) for the preferred facility, 1.45 (95%CI 1.33-1.58) for the government secondary facility, and 2.12 (95%CI 1.84-2.41) for tertiary care. Comparing injured patient-reported with GIS-estimated travel time, the correlation coefficient was 0.25 (SE 0.047) and Cohen's kappa was 0.15 (95%CI 0.078-0.23), suggesting poor agreement. DISCUSSION: Most households couldn't reach government secondary care within recognised thresholds indicating poor temporal access. Since GIS-estimated travel time was shorter than community-reported travel time, the true proportion may be lower still. GIS derived estimates of population emergency care access in similar contexts should be interpreted accordingly.

Experiences of multimorbidity in urban and rural Malawi: An interview study of burdens of treatment and lack of treatment.

Multimorbidity (presence of ≥2 long term conditions (LTCs)) is a growing global health challenge, yet we know little about the experiences of those living with multimorbidity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We therefore explore: 1) experiences of men and women living with multimorbidity in urban and rural Malawi including their experiences of burden of treatment and 2) examine the utility of Normalization Process Theory (NPT) and Burden of Treatment Theory (BOTT) for structuring analytical accounts of these experiences. We conducted in depth, semi-structured interviews with 32 people in rural (n = 16) and urban settings (n = 16); 16 males, 16 females; 15 under 50 years; and 17 over 50 years. Data were analysed thematically and then conceptualised through the lens of NPT and BOTT. Key elements of burden of treatment identified included: coming to terms with and gaining an understanding of life with multimorbidity; dealing with resulting disruptions to family life; the work of seeking family and community support; navigating healthcare systems; coping with lack of continuity of care; enacting self-management advice; negotiating medical advice; appraising treatments; and importantly, dealing with the burden of lack of treatments/services. Poverty and inadequate healthcare provision constrained capacity to deal with treatment burden while supportive social and community networks were important enabling features. Greater access to health information/education would lessen treatment burden as would better resourced healthcare systems and improved standards of living. Our work demonstrates the utility of NPT and BOTT for aiding conceptualisation of treatment burden issues in LMICs but our findings highlight that 'lack' of access to treatments or services is an important additional burden which must be integrated in accounts of treatment burden in LMICs.

Case Report: A gambling-related suicide in rural Malawi.

Background As in many other countries across sub-Saharan Africa, Malawi's commercial gambling sector has grown considerably in recent years. Driven by the widespread availability of internet through mobile devices, the industry has penetrated both urban and rural settings. In Malawi the model commonly implemented by gambling companies is similar to that used by mobile phone operators. Agents equipped with cellular devices connect to providers' servers to place wagers for customers and print receipts using simple printers attached to their devices. This has produced lucrative returns for providers. While increasing attention is being paid to this trend, most research focusses on sports betting and there is a deficit of papers that document gambling-related harms. Methods Here we present a narrative case report of a 16-year-old boy, 'Wati' (pseudonym), who lived in rural Malawi and took his own life after gambling and losing money that did not belong to him. As his community is part of a demographic surveillance site, a verbal autopsy was conducted, later supplemented with interviews with Wati's close friend and uncle, to whom his mother referred us. We triangulated data from these three sources to create a narrative case report of Wati's suicide and its relationship to his gambling practices. Results We found that the gambling harms leading up to Wati's suicide were recurrent, that his gambling practices were diverse (lottery, football betting, digital games and cards) and that signs of distress were apparent before his suicide. Conclusions From this case report, we learn that underage individuals participate in gambling in Malawi, can develop harmful habits and that their gambling is not confined to sports betting. We also learn that there is a lack of accessible services for people who develop harmful gambling practices. Wati could have benefited from such services and they may have saved his life.

Paediatric Emergency Triage, Assessment and Treatment (ETAT) - preparedness for implementation at primary care facilities in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The majority of deaths amongst children under 5 years are still due to preventable infectious causes. Emergency care has been identified as a key health system weakness, and referrals are often challenging. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to establish how prepared frontline facilities in Malawi are to implement WHO Emergency Triage Assessment and Treatment (ETAT) guidelines, to support policy and planning decisions. METHODS: We conducted a concurrent mixed-methods study, including facility audit; healthcare provider survey; focus group discussions (FGD) and semi-structured interviews with facility staff. The study was conducted in two districts in Malawi, Zomba and Mchinji, between January and May 2019. We included all frontline facilities, including dispensaries, primary health centres, rural and community hospitals. Quantitative data were described using proportions, means and linear regression. Qualitative data was analysed using a framework approach. Data were analysed separately and then triangulated into common themes. RESULTS: Forty-seven facilities and 531 healthcare providers were included in the audit and survey; 6 FGDs and 5 interviews were completed. Four common themes emerged: (1) current emergency case management; (2) referral practices; (3) trained staff capacity; (4) opportunities and barriers for ETAT. Triage was conducted in most facilities with various methods described, and 53% reporting all staff are responsible. Referrals were common, but challenging due to issues in transportation. Twelve percent of survey respondents had ETAT training, with clinical officers (41%) reporting this more frequently than other cadres. Training was associated with increased knowledge, independent of cadre. The main barriers to ETAT implementation were the lack of resources, but opportunities to improve quality of care were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Malawian frontline facilities are already providing a level of emergency paediatric care, but issues in training, drug supplies and equipment were present. To effectively scale-up ETAT, policies need to include supply chain management, maintenance and strengthening referral communication.

Age patterns of HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa: a modelling analysis of observational population-based cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: As the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa matures, evidence about the age distribution of new HIV infections and how this distribution has changed over the epidemic is needed to guide HIV prevention. We aimed to assess trends in age-specific HIV incidence in six population-based cohort studies in eastern and southern Africa, reporting changes in mean age at infection, age distribution of new infections, and birth cohort cumulative incidence. METHODS: We used a Bayesian model to reconstruct age-specific HIV incidence from repeated observations of individuals' HIV serostatus and survival collected among population HIV cohorts in rural Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, in a collaborative analysis of the ALPHA network. We modelled HIV incidence rates by age, time, and sex using smoothing splines functions. We estimated incidence trends separately by sex and study. We used estimated incidence and prevalence results for 2000-17, standardised to study population distribution, to estimate mean age at infection and proportion of new infections by age. We also estimated cumulative incidence (lifetime risk of infection) by birth cohort. FINDINGS: Age-specific incidence declined at all ages, although the timing and pattern of decline varied by study. The mean age at infection was higher in men (cohort mean 27·8-34·6 years) than in women (24·8-29·6 years). Between 2000 and 2017, the mean age at infection per cohort increased slightly: 0·5 to 2·8 years among men and -0·2 to 2·5 years among women. Across studies, between 38% and 63% (cohort medians) of the infections in women were among those aged 15-24 years and between 30% and 63% of infections in men were in those aged 20-29 years. Lifetime risk of HIV declined for successive birth cohorts. INTERPRETATION: HIV incidence declined in all age groups and shifted slightly to older ages. Disproportionate new HIV infections occur among women aged 15-24 years and men aged 20-29 years, supporting focused prevention in these groups. However, 40-60% of infections were outside these ages, emphasising the importance of providing appropriate HIV prevention to adults of all ages. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The effect of BCG revaccination on all-cause mortality beyond infancy: 30-year follow-up of a population-based, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Trials of BCG vaccination to prevent or reduce severity of COVID-19 are taking place in adults, some of whom have been previously vaccinated, but evidence of the beneficial, non-specific effects of BCG come largely from data on mortality in infants and young children, and from in-vitro and animal studies, after a first BCG vaccination. We assess all-cause mortality following a large BCG revaccination trial in Malawi. METHODS: The Karonga Prevention trial was a population-based, double-blind, randomised controlled in Karonga District, northern Malawi, that enrolled participants between January, 1986, and November, 1989. The trial compared BCG (Glaxo-strain) revaccination versus placebo to prevent tuberculosis and leprosy. 46 889 individuals aged 3 months to 75 years were randomly assigned to receive BCG revaccination (n=23 528) or placebo (n=23 361). Here we report mortality since vaccination as recorded during active follow-up in northern areas of the district in 1991-94, and in a demographic surveillance follow-up in the southern area in 2002-18. 7389 individuals who received BCG (n=3746) or placebo (n=3643) lived in the northern follow-up areas, and 5616 individuals who received BCG (n=2798) or placebo (n=2818) lived in the southern area. Year of death or leaving the area were recorded for those not found. We used survival analysis to estimate all-cause mortality. FINDINGS: Follow-up information was available for 3709 (99·0%) BCG recipients and 3612 (99·1%) placebo recipients in the northern areas, and 2449 (87·5%) BCG recipients and 2413 (85·6%) placebo recipients in the southern area. There was no difference in mortality between the BCG and placebo groups in either area, overall or by age group or sex. In the northern area, there were 129 deaths per 19 694 person-years at risk in the BCG group (6·6 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·5-7·8]) versus 133 deaths per 19 111 person-years at risk in the placebo group (7·0 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·9-8·2]; HR 0·94 [95% CI 0·74-1·20]; p=0·62). In the southern area, there were 241 deaths per 38 399 person-years at risk in the BCG group (6·3 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·5-7·1]) versus 230 deaths per 38 676 person-years at risk in the placebo group (5·9 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·2-6·8]; HR 1·06 [95% CI 0·88-1·27]; p=0·54). INTERPRETATION: We found little evidence of any beneficial effect of BCG revaccination on all-cause mortality. The high proportion of deaths attributable to non-infectious causes beyond infancy, and the long time interval since BCG for most deaths, might obscure any benefits. FUNDING: British Leprosy Relief Association (LEPRA); Wellcome Trust.